Many people who love to read worry that modern distractions like live video, the Internet, and television make reading less important. Even with these worries, book sales have been strong, even thriving since the pandemic, with a 10% rise from 2019 levels. The number of adult fiction books and diaries has grown. However, a worrying trend appears among a very important group: kids ages 8 to 12.

The "Decline by 9" Phenomenon

The most worrying thing is the "Decline by 9," which is the sharp drop in kids reading for fun around age nine. According to a study by Scholastic, only 35% of nine-year-olds read for fun every day, down from 57% of eight-year-olds. This trend worsened because of the pandemic, which stopped important social interactions where peer reading suggestions started a lifelong love of reading. 

Middle-Grade Reading Crisis

It is concerning that fewer children are reading middle-grade novels, which are novels for children ages 8-12. The first three quarters of 2023 saw ten percent fewer sales of these books, following a 16% decline in 2022. 

Screen time is often blamed for people not reading as much, but it is not the only cause. Phone ownership among eight and nine-year-olds remains steady at around 30%, suggesting other factors at play. The lack of phones creates marketing challenges, as modern book promotion heavily relies on social media platforms like TikTok, which do not cater to younger children.

The educational environment also plays a significant role. Increased test-focused curricula leave little room for reading purely for enjoyment. Reading has become a chore linked to quizzes and reading logs, stripping away the joy and discovery that should accompany it.

Impact of the Pandemic on Reading

The pandemic disrupted traditional avenues of book discovery. Peer-to-peer recommendations, often made during recess or casual conversations, vanished as schools closed and social interactions moved online. This lag in recommendations continues to affect middle-grade readers' enthusiasm for books.

Publishers are struggling to adapt to this new reality. Without the influence of peers or a strong marketing channel, it is challenging to introduce middle-graders to new books. The absence of a recent blockbuster middle-grade series adds to the difficulty. Unlike teenagers, heavily influenced by BookTok, middle-graders lack a similar platform.

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Solutions and Industry Responses

To fight this drop, publishers focus on types of books that have done well in the past, like graphic and illustrated novels. These forms are in between picture books and regular novels. They offer a visually interesting reading experience that can get people who do not normally read to start.

However, there is concern that serious, thought-provoking books are being sidelined. The market's shift toward humor and lighter content, while beneficial in some ways, may limit the diversity of books available to young readers. Established authors can still publish serious works, but new authors face significant barriers, particularly those from diverse backgrounds.

The Path Forward

The children's publishing industry hopes for a new blockbuster that will reignite interest in reading among middle-graders. A single hit could boost the market and encourage more kids to pick up books. However, the industry also needs a broader tent, with multiple successful series catering to various interests.

The intricate challenge of "Decline by 9" requires cooperation from writers, parents, and educators. We can try to change this trend and ensure that the next generation grows up loving books by encouraging a love of reading through interesting and varied materials and opening up new ways to find books.

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