The release of Apple's much hyped, new smaller iPad, the iPad mini, in stores this weekend was much more successful than the minimal lines at its retail stores might have you believe. Apple sold 3 million iPads this weekend, CEO Tim Cook announced Nov. 5.
Of course, Apple isn't commenting any further on the matter. The company hasn't broken down those sales figures to reveal just how many of those sales represent the fourth generation iPad, and the new iPad mini, respectively. But, at least one analyst estimates that the bulk of Apple's first-weekend sales were for the 8-inch tablet.
The iPad mini may be stealing potential iPad sales, if that prediction is accurate, which "could be negative for Apple if iPad Mini volumes aren't high enough to offset the lower selling prices," says CNET.
Apple is depending on the iPad mini to address the growing consumer demand for smaller tablets that has been dominated by Amazon, Samsung, Google, Asus, and Barnes & Noble.
"We set a new launch weekend record and practically sold out of iPad minis" Apple CEO Cook said Nov 5 of the sales figures. "We're working hard to build more quickly to meet the incredible demand."
According to Cook, the 3 million sales stat is double that of the last "first weekend milestone" set in March 2012, when Apple launched the iPad 3 with Retina display. That sales period, the company sold 1.5 million WiFi-only models in the first three days.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates Apple sold 2 million to 2.5 million iPad Minis in the device's debut weekend, much higher than his previous estimate for 1 million to 1.5 million. Munster based his estimate on standing-in-line surveys, which revealed roughly nine out of every 10 customers were waiting for the iPad mini, rather than a full-sized iPad.
Munster originally estimated $12.6 billion in overall iPad revenue in the December quarter, an estimate he says he is still comfortable with. However, the mix and unit totals may shift depending on Mini availability, he says.
"Specifically, units may increase driven by iPad Mini, but have a slight cannibalization effect, which, when factoring in the lower [average selling price], would result in revenue unchanged," Munster noted. "We are currently modeling for 25 million total iPads including 20 million full-sized iPads and 5 million Minis in December."
Similarly, J.P.Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz agreed that most first-weekend sales were likely for the iPad mini.
Moskowitz expects the iPad mini to steal sales from the $199 tablet market and hurt the PC and e-reader markets, with momentum continuing as the cellular versions of the iPad Mini and fourth-generation iPad become available Nov. 16.
"Given the global economic uncertainty, we think price-sensitive users could gravitate toward an iPad mini instead of making a PC purchase. Our view is that the incremental use case is more differentiated for first-time tablet users. In tough times, unique or 'feel good' purchases can be more amenable to end users, which gives the edge to the tablet versus the PC, in our view," Moskowitz noted.
He also believes the iPad Mini could help the iPad become Apple's main growth market, rather than the iPhone.
"In our view, barring entry of another new category, Apple's iPad Mini could set the stage for the iPad product set to carry the growth baton in the future, particularly as iPhone growth momentum moderates," Moskowitz noted.
Piper Jaffray analyst Munster had initially speculated the iPad mini would cannibalize as many as 1 million iPad sales during the fourth quarter.
Munster predicted that 20 percent of the devices sold will take the place of one full-sized iPad.
Granted, that's not exactly bad news for Apple. Every iPad mini sold is one Kindle Fire HD or one 32GB Nexus 7 that's still collecting dust on the shelves.
Apple itself doesn't seem to mind the idea of the iPad mini eating into sales of its other devices. Company CEO Cook said as much during a 2011 conference call when asked if the iPad was cutting into Mac sales.
"Yes, I think there is some cannibalization, but I also think there is a halo effect," said Cook, explaining that some of those users will later decide to buy a Mac. "If this is cannibalization, it feels pretty good," Cook added.
Munster also seems to believe that despite the cannibalization, the iPad mini will boost Apple's overall tablet sales.
iPad Mini Specs
You can get an iPad Mini Wi-Fi model in three memory configurations: $329 for 16GB, $429 for 32GB, and $529 for 64GB. On Nov. 16, we'll see Wi-Fi + 4G models hit the shelves at $459 for 16GB, $559 for 32GB, and $659 for 64GB.
The 1,024x768-pixel resolution matches that of the iPad 2, but on a 7.9-inch display. "This definitely isn't Retina Display, but it's better-than-iPad-2 display. Videos look excellent, and the IPS screen has great wide-viewing angles," said CNET.
Includes a front-facing 720p-capable FaceTime camera, and a 5-megapixel back camera, and also supports 4G LTE, 802.11a/b/g/n Wi-Fi at 5.2Ghz, Bluetooth 4.0, and will use Apple's Lightning connector, first seen on the iPhone 5.
Apple claims that the Mini has a 10-hour battery life.